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Ashish V Orpe's avatar

Thanks for a very lucid explanation about dollar-rupee swap by RBI. Nice 👌 Wonder if this affects BoP management in any way

Pranav Manie's avatar

Thank you so much! My hunch is the liquidity intervention itself might not do so significantly. It's more of a balancing operation meant for domestic banks holding dollars. But yeah, it is a direct response to past FX interventions (which obviously affects BoP).

Ashish V Orpe's avatar

Agreed. Yes, so it is post addressing the BoP. Thanks

Ashish V Orpe's avatar

Just read about FCNR (B) swap window enabled by RBI till September 30…

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/portfolio/personal-finance/usdinr-and-decoding-the-magic-of-an-idiotic-idea/article71070117.ece

I guess this is the same as you folks wrote, though the Raghuram Rajan, as RBI governor, was the first one to enable this measure to obviate the effects of taper tantrum in 2013…though he was initially opposed to idea whilst being floated during previous RBI governor Subbarao’s tenure….It worked given the return of FDI, rupee appreciation and BoP surplus

Samarth B.S's avatar

So these ppl kept jiggling there books to show the company is some what healthy, and then actually because profitable later on, and just got a slap on the wrist for misleading people😭😭🙏

Kashish Kapoor's avatar

That pretty much sums up what happened.

Gayatri's avatar

one of my CA faculty use to say never invest in the company just by looking it's profits without examining it's statements. Even a beautifully curated accounts can mislead you and this article really explained that well that you cannot mislead people no matter how impressive is your paperwork and how creative you were at that time 💯

Dhiraj Kapgate's avatar

Hey guys - thanks for an insightful read (re RBI swaps). One thing I don't understand is this statement - This auction had a cut-off of ₹9.10, meaning every bid below that was rejected; 113 banks didn’t get in. Why would RBI not allow banks to bid lower? Or maybe I am completely misunderstanding the auction dynamics.

Dhiraj Kapgate's avatar

Also is there a good source to track India's BOP on a regular basis?

Og Player's avatar

Incredible breakdown. It really highlights the fine line between 'survival-mode financial engineering' and outright investor deception It’s wild to think that the foundations of Suzlon's massive turnaround today were built on what SEBI essentially categorized as an optical illusion. A great reminder to always look closely at subsidiary transactions.

Divya Rai's avatar

The headline is $690 billion in reserves. But $103 billion is already committed in forward obligations and $115 billion is in gold. The usable buffer is much smaller than it looks.

Swap auctions buy time. The solution requires manufacturing exports at scale. That conversation is not happening.

Pranav Manie's avatar

That is indeed one solution to this problem. Another is doubling down on domestic energy sovereignty.