Excellent work on both articles! The piece on lithium provided valuable insights into its significance and impact. Similarly, the article on Europe's economic troubles offered a thorough analysis of the challenges ahead.
Thank you for sharing your expertise and keeping us informed on these critical topics.
Well, to me it seems the following scenario can play out for Europe: as more countries de-globalises, Europe too shall do it, rely less on China for goods, will painfully restructure its economy to produce locally the goods that it needs (goods that it had outsourced to China). We are likely headed for a world of tariffs because no countries politics can survive the anger of it's low-skilled workers losing jobs. If trade is at 43% of world GDP, it needs to go down for a while.
It's economically inefficient that countries will produce locally what it could outsource to cheaper countries. But what can we really do. It's either some tariffs, or a path towards consolidation into a global monetary-political union, like the EU but at a global scale, for which we aren't at all prepared for right now.
Why is Europe in a Mess? Two Big Reasons, I want to add one more that is particularly related to Germany i.e. buyout of more than 100 German firms buy China this is very critical as China acquired German technologies, design, patents and other innovations to copy them and develop and manufacture innovative products at low cost and sell them to global markets. In this way, Germany lost its innovation/invention capabilities and lost its market leadership. Therefore, it will be difficult and will take long time for Germany to bounce back.
I have one naive question. When European were not spending and saving. So, this saving was sitting in cash at their homes or in banks to give loans to business or other interested entities. I think I am missing something here, please elaborate. Thank you.
I get the point why domestic demand is so crucial for an economy and why government's worry so much on consumer confidence and why all these consumer confidence surveys are conducted asking people about the current and future expectations of growth.
Higher consumer confidence means greater willingness to spend. This also makes sense from the point of view that government's would not like a sustained bear market and hence asked LIC in the past to pump in money.
Equity markets are proxy to GDP growth for retail investors and low investor confidence over prolonged period can lead to lower consumer confidence. ( I may be wrong with this assumption. Correct me if I am missing something here)
Excellent work on both articles! The piece on lithium provided valuable insights into its significance and impact. Similarly, the article on Europe's economic troubles offered a thorough analysis of the challenges ahead.
Thank you for sharing your expertise and keeping us informed on these critical topics.
Glad you liked it :) ❤️
any updates on the book club , is the plan cancelled ?
We’ll soon start this, just figuring out a few things :)
Well, to me it seems the following scenario can play out for Europe: as more countries de-globalises, Europe too shall do it, rely less on China for goods, will painfully restructure its economy to produce locally the goods that it needs (goods that it had outsourced to China). We are likely headed for a world of tariffs because no countries politics can survive the anger of it's low-skilled workers losing jobs. If trade is at 43% of world GDP, it needs to go down for a while.
It's economically inefficient that countries will produce locally what it could outsource to cheaper countries. But what can we really do. It's either some tariffs, or a path towards consolidation into a global monetary-political union, like the EU but at a global scale, for which we aren't at all prepared for right now.
Why is Europe in a Mess? Two Big Reasons, I want to add one more that is particularly related to Germany i.e. buyout of more than 100 German firms buy China this is very critical as China acquired German technologies, design, patents and other innovations to copy them and develop and manufacture innovative products at low cost and sell them to global markets. In this way, Germany lost its innovation/invention capabilities and lost its market leadership. Therefore, it will be difficult and will take long time for Germany to bounce back.
I have one naive question. When European were not spending and saving. So, this saving was sitting in cash at their homes or in banks to give loans to business or other interested entities. I think I am missing something here, please elaborate. Thank you.
Ultimately, it's all within the banking system. Cash is a small part in most advanced economies.
I get the point why domestic demand is so crucial for an economy and why government's worry so much on consumer confidence and why all these consumer confidence surveys are conducted asking people about the current and future expectations of growth.
Higher consumer confidence means greater willingness to spend. This also makes sense from the point of view that government's would not like a sustained bear market and hence asked LIC in the past to pump in money.
Equity markets are proxy to GDP growth for retail investors and low investor confidence over prolonged period can lead to lower consumer confidence. ( I may be wrong with this assumption. Correct me if I am missing something here)