🎥 We Started a New Show!

Mar 30, 2025

Hi, I’m Kashish, and…I’ve been cooking up something new behind the scenes.

If you’ve followed The Daily Brief, you know it’s the go-to for quick, daily explainers on what’s happening in business and finance.

If you’ve seen Big Perspective, you’ve probably caught a few long-form interviews with fund managers and experts.

If you've caught Who Said What, you're already up-to-speed with the obscure, interesting, or insightful takes that people across the internet are sharing on the topics my team cares about.

And if you’re into macro stuff, chances are you’ve heard our infrequent weekend shows breaking down policy, markets, and global trends.

But there was something missing.

A space between quick daily updates, macro breakdowns, expert chats, and quirky internet takes—something slower, deeper, and more narrative-driven. A show where we don’t just tell you what's happening in a sector, but take you through it: the questions, the research rabbit holes, the "wait, that doesn’t make sense" moments. All of it.

I’m calling it The Long Answer for now—because naming stuff is harder than you’d think (seriously, we tried). So, if you've got something better, wittier, or catchier, drop us your suggestions!

It’s a new documentary-style series I’m trying out. I pick one sector, one big trigger, and then go all-in—with research, storytelling, and interviews with people way smarter than me.

You can expect me to:

Pick topics I genuinely want to geek out on.
Spend hours diving into intriguing rabbit holes.
Speak with experts who've spent decades thinking deeply about these topics.
Understand it thoroughly (or at least convince myself I do 😉).
Stitch it all together into a compelling narrative-driven documentary.

This isn't a recommendation show; it's a curiosity show.

Ep 1: Can Birla Opus Win the Indian Paints War?

For the first episode, I picked a sector my boss said was “too boring” to start with.

I took that personally.

So we kicked things off with one of the most quietly powerful industries in India—decorative paints.

It sounds niche, but the numbers will make your eyes pop:

Paints have created some of the biggest stock market returns in India.
The top three players have ruled the sector like an oligopoly for decades.
And now, Kumar Mangalam Birla has walked in with a ₹10,000 crore war chest to shake things up.

I asked myself:

Why is this industry so tough to break into?
What makes paint such a good business?
Can Birla Opus actually disrupt the market—or is this another failed challenger in the making?
And if competition explodes… does the entire sector suffer?

I also roped in two brilliant fund managers—Rakshit Ranjan and Raj Mehta—to help us make sense of what’s happening beneath the surface.

Now, if you're a video person, I highly recommend you watch the full video. But if you prefer reading and want the hard-hitting insights, here’s what you need to know:

1. Paint is a Consumer Business, not a Chemical Business

At first glance, paints seem straightforward—chemicals in a bucket, right? Wrong. What actually sets apart successful paint companies isn’t chemistry; it's consumer understanding, branding, and how quickly the paint reaches your doorstep. Paint, it turns out, behaves a lot like toothpaste or shampoo—classic FMCG products.

Think about it: When was the last time you picked paint based purely on its chemical composition? Probably never.

Paint-buying decisions are driven by availability, trust, branding, and how quickly you can start the job. That makes paints less about mixing chemicals, and far more about understanding what you, the consumer, truly want—and delivering it faster than anyone else.

2. Distribution is Everything

Paint is bulky, heavy, and awkward to transport, which makes distribution a nightmare. Yet, it’s precisely this challenge that has created some of the biggest winners in the industry. Companies that cracked distribution—like Asian Paints and Berger—don’t just dominate; they practically own the sector.

For dealers, the most critical factor isn’t how much profit they can make on a single bucket. It’s how quickly they can move their inventory—something called inventory turnover. Even if the profit per bucket is razor-thin, dealers can thrive if they're constantly selling and restocking.

This is where supply-chain velocity comes in. Imagine you’re a dealer, and your paint supplier delivers new stock not once a week or once a day—but multiple times daily. Would you ever consider switching to a supplier who comes only twice a week? Probably not. This relentless efficiency is what makes distribution the silent but unbeatable competitive edge in paints.

3. Tinting Machines are Kind of a Big Deal

Here’s another hidden secret: Tinting machines. Every paint company offers thousands of color variations. No dealer, big or small, has the physical space or financial capacity to stock them all. The solution? A tinting machine—basically a high-tech blender—that lets dealers mix and match any shade instantly, on demand.

But here’s the catch: these machines are large, expensive, and usually fit just one or two per store. Once a dealer installs your tinting machine, it becomes incredibly difficult for them to switch brands. You’re effectively locked in, guaranteeing dealer loyalty for years. Tinting machines quietly become a fortress-like moat, one that's hard for any competitor to cross.

4. Pricing Wars Rarely Win Market Share

Before I started this research, I assumed that if a new player entered a market and slashed prices dramatically, they'd quickly gain market share. Turns out, paints defy that logic completely.

Over the decades, multiple entrants have come in, tried slashing prices, and accepting lower profits (ROCE) in hopes of capturing market share. Almost every time, they've failed. Why? Because simply reducing prices isn't enough unless it directly makes life easier for dealers, painters, or end consumers.

Dealers don’t choose paint brands because they're cheaper. They choose brands that reliably help them sell paint faster and keep their businesses running smoothly. Pricing wars in isolation don't achieve that; they're just burning money without creating sustainable competitive advantage.

5. Painters and Dealers are the Kingmakers

As consumers, we love to think we're fully in control of our buying choices. But with paint, I realized something surprising—most of the time, the painter chooses for us.

Think about your last paint job: Did you personally go and buy the paint bucket from a store, carefully picking among brands? Or did you leave it to your painter, who probably recommended the brand that was easiest for him to source?

Dealers influence painters, and painters influence you. This invisible chain of influence means branding in paints works very differently from typical consumer industries.

Sure, having a Bollywood star or cricket icon endorse your paint brand helps build credibility—but the real buying decision is quietly made by your painter, influenced heavily by what the dealer keeps stocked. This subtle behind-the-scenes dynamic completely changed how I think about branding and advertising in the paints business.

6. Be Very Wary of Overcapacity

Lastly, I stumbled upon a business concept called the "capital cycle," which honestly, sounds way duller than it is. In simple terms, when an industry consistently makes high profits, new companies and investors jump in, building extra factories, adding huge capacities, hoping to share the pie.

But here’s the thing: By the time all this new supply finally arrives in the market, there's often way too much paint for everyone to sell. Profits collapse, companies merge or shut down, and investors flee. Eventually, after the dust settles, only a handful of stronger survivors remain, and profits rise again.

Historically, the Indian paint industry hasn’t been very cyclical. But now—with the massive entry of big-pocketed players like Birla Opus and JSW Paints pouring thousands of crores into the market—we might be entering uncharted waters. Is this paints’ "Jio moment," triggering a brutal price war and a massive industry shake-up, like we saw in telecom? Or will paints be resilient enough to absorb the new competition?

Honestly, I have no clue. But it’s something every investor (and curious observer) should keep an eye on.

At the end of this research rabbit hole, did I come out with all the answers? Absolutely not. In fact, I probably have more questions now than when I started. But that’s okay. Because that’s exactly how real learning feels—it leaves you less certain, but more curious.

Paints taught me that the deepest insights often come from the industries we least expect.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. Drop your feedback, critiques, questions—everything. I want this series to improve with every episode.

Until next time,
Kashish Kapoor (KK)