Welcome to “The world, simplified”, a weekly show that will break down some of the biggest developments in finance and economics that are shaping our world.
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In this episode, we break down two major stories reshaping our world:
The Truth About Cyber Scams
Big Financial Risks Around the World
You’ve probably heard about crypto scams and investment scams, or maybe even know someone who’s been a victim of cybercrime. To really understand how these scams work, we dove into a report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime—and what we found was both fascinating and alarming, revealing just how big a threat this is to society. That’s exactly what we’ll cover in our first story.
But cybercrime isn’t the only challenge out there. Right now, there are some serious risks facing the global economy. To get a clear picture of these risks, we reviewed the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), which explains how the global financial system operates. In our second story, we’ll share the most interesting and impactful insights from this report.
Introduction to Transnational Organized Crime
Let’s start by talking about something that sounds like a cyber-thriller, but is very real. Around the world, new organized crime groups are gaining power—they’re smart, tech-savvy, and ruthless.
So, what is transnational organized crime? It’s basically crime that crosses borders. These criminal groups don’t just operate in one place; they span multiple countries. But why should we care? Because these crimes directly affect our daily lives, from our money to our safety. When we hear about people losing their life savings in an online scam or cryptocurrency being stolen, it’s often these groups behind it. Over the past five years, these crime groups have grown quickly, raking in up to $37 billion in 2023 alone. Just think—$37 billion is as big as some of the world’s largest companies.
These criminals operate like businesses, but instead of selling products, they sell lies, scamming innocent people on a massive scale. This is happening globally, and the impact is devastating for people who not only lose their money but also their sense of security. These scams have become a global nuisance, with a scale and reach that’s hard to imagine.
The Professionalization of Crime Syndicates
Now, here’s something even more surprising—these crime groups are extremely professional. They have offices, HR teams, and even training programs for their workers. They offer rewards and set performance goals for their teams. These groups have become so efficient that stopping them is a massive challenge.
In countries like Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos, there are places like KK Park that look like tech parks but are actually heavily guarded compounds. People are lured in with promises of real jobs but are instead forced to scam others online under harsh conditions. These compounds are controlled by powerful figures and rented out to different criminal groups, each running its own illegal operations, like online gambling or cyber fraud.
These crime groups are also using advanced methods to recruit people, like posting polished job ads on LinkedIn and offering “exciting” jobs in Southeast Asia. Victims end up trapped in these compounds, forced to scam people under extreme conditions. This shows how organized, professional, and efficient these groups have become, which is why it’s important to understand the threat they pose.
Now, let’s dive into the different types of scams.
Types of Scams - Pig Butchering, Investment Scams, and Job Scams
Let’s dive into three common scams—Pig Butchering, investment scams, and job scams.
Pig Butchering Scam: One of the biggest scams making headlines today is called “Pig Butchering.” Despite the strange name, it’s extremely dangerous. Scammers spend months gaining a victim’s trust before introducing an “investment opportunity” that seems too good to be true. By the time the victim realizes it’s a scam, all their savings are gone.
For example, a young professional in Singapore met someone on a dating app. They got along well, and over a few months, this new “friend” introduced them to an investment opportunity that looked amazing. Everything seemed legitimate, with realistic websites, fake testimonials, and even a fake customer service team. He invested over $100,000, or about ₹83 lakhs, only to find out it was all fake. The scammers disappeared, taking his money with them. The victim thought he was building a genuine relationship, which made the betrayal even more painful.Investment Scams: Investment scams often promise high returns with little or no risk, preying on people’s desire for financial security. These scams look like real investment opportunities, usually in areas like stocks, cryptocurrency, forex, or real estate. Scammers even pose as representatives from well-known investment firms, using fake websites and professional-looking documents to gain trust.
In one case, scammers impersonated a reputable investment company, promising guaranteed returns through a cryptocurrency platform. They showed victims a professional website, fake client testimonials, and even provided call center support to make the scam seem real. Victims could watch fake dashboards showing their “profits” growing, which encouraged them to invest even more.
Eventually, the scammers vanished, leaving the victims with significant financial losses.
Job Scams: Job scams are especially harmful because they target people’s hopes and dreams. Scammers post fake job ads on legitimate job sites, promising high-paying positions in other countries. Victims often travel to Southeast Asia, where they’re trapped in locked compounds, their passports confiscated, and forced to work.
For example, a young man from India was promised a well-paying IT job in Cambodia. When he arrived, his passport was taken away, and he was forced to work 14-hour days scamming people online. The conditions were terrible—crowded sleeping quarters, limited food, and constant threats from armed guards.
Although he eventually managed to escape, many others are not as fortunate. In some cases, the scammers demand ransom from the families of those trapped, making the situation even worse. Families often have to sell property or take out loans to pay the ransom, but the criminals rarely intend to release the victims.
Now, let’s discuss how money laundering connects to all of this.
Money Laundering and Underground Banking
This is where things get even more complex. Criminal groups use something called “underground banking” to move money without using regular banks. It’s fast, efficient, and extremely hard to trace. Casinos, especially in places with loose regulations, are popular spots for these criminals to “clean” their money. They also use cryptocurrencies and unauthorized virtual asset services, which help them move billions of dollars under the radar.
One common method involves junket operators in casinos. These operators help criminals move large sums of cash, making it look clean through the casino’s records. This practice is prevalent in places like the Philippines, Cambodia, and Macau, creating a major challenge for law enforcement.
Another tactic is the use of cryptocurrency mixers—services that blend different users’ cryptocurrencies, making transactions nearly impossible to trace. Criminals use these mixers to launder millions, and because cryptocurrency operates outside regular banks, it’s very difficult for authorities to follow the money trail. Cryptocurrencies have become a major tool for crime groups, allowing them to move money anonymously. Fake crypto exchanges are also used to move and hide funds, making it hard for regulators to track where the money is coming from.
Why does this matter to us? Because these scams don’t just affect the direct victims—they harm entire economies. Criminals use their “dirty” money to buy property, driving up housing prices and making it harder for regular families to afford a home. These scams create real problems in our everyday lives.
Crime-as-a-Service
Now, let’s talk about something called “crime-as-a-service.” Organized crime is increasingly operating like a business. Imagine being able to hire a hacker, someone to launder money, or even someone to run a scam—just like hiring a freelancer. These crime groups have essentially created a market for crime. Specialists offer services like hacking or money laundering, all for a price, making it easier for even small-time criminals to act like big crime organizations. Instead of building everything themselves, they can simply “rent” the skills they need.
For example, underground data markets sell stolen credit card information, malware, and hacking services at a cost. Bulletproof hosting services provide criminals with the tools they need to carry out cyberattacks while staying hidden from the authorities. These services have made it easier for cybercriminals to get started and to specialize in different types of crimes, making their operations more effective and scalable.
The ability to outsource different parts of a crime helps criminal organizations grow and adapt quickly, which makes them incredibly challenging for law enforcement to tackle. Imagine trying to fight a network that is always changing and has access to the latest tools and skills, no matter where they are. That’s the real strength of crime-as-a-service.
Adoption of New Technologies - Deepfakes, AI, and More
If you think these crime groups are old-fashioned, think again. They’re adopting new technologies faster than anyone could imagine—often faster than law enforcement. Tools like generative AI, deepfakes, blockchain, and more have become essential weapons for these crime groups. These aren’t just buzzwords; they’re now powerful tools used to gain an edge.
Deepfake Crimes: Deepfake scams are becoming more common, with criminals using AI to create fake identities that look and sound real. Imagine getting a video call from someone who looks and sounds like your friend, but it’s actually a deepfake designed to scam you. This tactic is now regularly used by crime groups.
For example, in Japan, a businessman lost over $200,000, or about ₹1.6 crores, after receiving a deepfake video call from someone who looked and sounded like his business partner. The fake partner claimed to urgently need money for a new deal, so the businessman sent the funds—only to find out later that his real partner knew nothing about it.
Another troubling example is the use of deepfakes to impersonate CEOs. Imagine being an employee who gets a call from your boss, telling you to transfer money to a new supplier immediately. Everything seems real—the voice, the sense of urgency—but it’s actually a deepfake. Criminals are getting increasingly skilled at using these tools to take advantage of trust.
Generative AI for Phishing and Fake Profiles: Generative AI tools are now used to create phishing emails, scripts, and fake identities that make scams more convincing. These AI-generated profiles are used on social media to build trust with victims over time. Criminals can create fake profiles with detailed backstories, photos, and activities, making it almost impossible for people to tell the difference between a scam and a real person.
Blockchain and Cryptocurrency: The use of blockchain and cryptocurrencies has transformed how criminal groups move money. Blockchain allows them to transfer funds globally while mostly hiding their identity. With unauthorized virtual asset services, these groups can launder millions with minimal risk of getting caught. Cryptocurrency mixers make tracing transactions nearly impossible, creating huge challenges for law enforcement trying to follow the money trail.
Why does this matter to us? Because technology isn’t just helping regular people—it’s also making things easier for criminals. These tools enable criminals to operate more effectively and stay ahead of the police. The more advanced these tools become, the more at risk we all are—from individuals to large companies.
Trafficking and Forced Criminality
Now we come to the darkest side of all this—human trafficking and forced labor. This might be the most shocking part of today’s story. These crime groups don’t just scam people; they also traffic them. Thousands of people from countries like India, China, and Malaysia have been lured into scam compounds with false promises, only to be forced into criminal work. They’re made to run online fraud operations and face brutal punishments if they refuse. In the last five years alone, around 200,000 people from at least 60 countries have been trafficked into these compounds.
Imagine being promised a good job, packing your bags, and flying to another country—only to end up trapped in a locked facility with no way out. You’re forced to scam innocent people every day. If you refuse, you’re beaten. If you try to escape, you’re punished. It’s a terrible reality, but it’s happening right now, all over the world.
In one case, a group of women from the Philippines was tricked into going to Myanmar with promises of high-paying jobs in customer service. When they arrived, they were taken to a heavily guarded compound and forced to work in online fraud. They were threatened that if they didn’t comply, their families back home would be harmed. It’s hard to imagine the fear and desperation they must have felt, but this is the reality for thousands of people caught up in these scams.
Closing Remarks
So, what does all this mean for us? These cybercrime groups aren’t going away anytime soon. They’re becoming more advanced, more organized, and more dangerous. But knowledge is power. Understanding how they operate and knowing how to protect ourselves is the first step in fighting back. Whether it’s recognizing the signs of a scam, being cautious about job offers that seem too good to be true, or just understanding the scale of these operations—we can all play a part.
Now, cybercrime isn’t the only threat we’re facing. Let’s zoom out and talk about some of the biggest risks threatening the global economy today—and why they matter to us all.
Big Financial Risks Around the World
The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) is published twice a year by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to check how stable the world's financial markets are. Most reports from international agencies can be a bit dry, but this one is different. If you're interested in understanding how the global financial system really works, it’s worth a look.
The report is hundreds of pages long, but don’t worry—we’ve gone through it so you don’t have to. What caught our attention were the different risks the IMF is keeping an eye on. Speaking of risks, it brings to mind a quote by Morgan Housel: “The biggest risk is always what no one sees coming.” But it’s also crucial to pay attention to the obvious risks we can see right in front of us.
Sovereign Debt Risk
Let’s start with sovereign debt risk.
So, what is sovereign debt, and why does it matter?
Sovereign debt is the money that countries borrow to pay for things like healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Think of it as the government’s credit card—used to cover costs now, with a promise to pay it back later.
Problems start when this debt grows too large, making it difficult to pay back. Imagine maxing out your credit card and struggling to make even the minimum payment—countries can face similar challenges. There's a big difference, though, between how rich and poor countries handle debt. Wealthier nations like the United States or Japan borrow in their own currencies, allowing them to print more money if needed. For example, Japan has a debt of over 260% of its annual economic output (GDP), but because they borrow in yen (its currency), they have ways to manage it.
The U.S., with debt exceeding $32 trillion, can still borrow at low interest rates because the U.S. dollar is trusted worldwide. On the other hand, emerging countries like Argentina or Ghana don’t have that advantage. They often borrow in U.S. dollars because investors don’t fully trust their local currencies. Argentina's debt is about 90% of its yearly economy, and it couldn’t make its payments again in 2024—the ninth time it has defaulted. Ghana’s debt is around 80% of its economy, and high interest rates make it even harder to keep up with payments.
The real challenge for these countries is that when U.S. interest rates rise, it becomes more expensive to pay back loans in U.S. dollars. Imagine if the interest rate on your credit card doubled—suddenly, making the monthly payment would be much tougher. This is what many countries are experiencing, which means they have less money left for essential services like schools, hospitals, and infrastructure.
Smaller economies, including Zambia, Sri Lanka, and Ghana, are also struggling with high borrowing costs. In 2024 alone, they’re due to pay around $4 billion in debt, with $13 billion in 2025 and $14 billion in 2026. Around 60% of this debt is held by countries paying steep interest rates of 10% or more.
High U.S. interest rates force these countries to pay more to borrow, creating a tough cycle where they must raise taxes, cut spending, or borrow more just to stay afloat. The IMF estimates that about 60% of low-income countries are either struggling to pay their debts or at high risk of falling into this struggle. More than 20 countries are already in the process of defaulting or restructuring their debts, showing just how widespread the sovereign debt problem is. This has a real impact on people’s daily lives—governments have to cut spending on things that matter to citizens to cover their loan payments. Schools close, healthcare becomes less accessible, and important infrastructure projects are paused.
These cutbacks, often called austerity measures, can lead to protests and unrest because it’s the people who feel the impact. In recent years, we’ve seen the effects of debt crises firsthand. In Sri Lanka, massive protests erupted in 2022 as the government struggled to pay back its debt, causing severe shortages of fuel, medicine, and food. This shows how quickly a debt issue can turn into a crisis affecting people’s most basic needs.
Corporate Debt
Now, let’s talk about corporate debt—the money companies borrow. Just like countries, companies take out loans to grow—building new factories, hiring more workers, or creating new products. Right now, though, corporate debt is at an all-time high, around $88 trillion worldwide. In the United States alone, companies owe close to $12 trillion, and interest rates on that debt have doubled compared to a few years ago. This means companies that borrowed heavily when interest rates were low are now struggling to make higher payments. For companies with lower credit ratings (often called 'junk' bonds), about 4.8% are currently unable to pay back their loans. That’s nearly 5 out of every 100 companies in this category.
Companies in emerging markets are in an even tougher spot. They borrowed when rates were low, but now that rates have gone up, their interest costs have risen sharply. The average interest coverage ratio—which measures how easily a company can pay its interest—has dropped from about 6 times the interest payment in 2020 to just 3.5 times in 2024 for risky companies. This means many are now struggling to make enough to cover their interest payments. The average refinancing rate for these companies has climbed to 5.5%, much higher than the previous rate of 3.5% on their existing debt.
This situation puts significant pressure on companies, especially those in emerging markets that borrowed at low, fixed rates before interest rates rose. Now, refinancing costs are high, and companies struggle to renew their loans without facing much steeper costs. In industries like retail and technology, this has become a major challenge. Retailers that borrowed to survive the pandemic are now burdened with higher interest payments, just as consumer spending has slowed.
The tech sector is also feeling the squeeze, particularly smaller companies without steady income, as venture capital has dried up, making loan repayments tougher. In Europe, companies face similar issues with rising borrowing costs, further impacted by the energy crisis due to the war in Ukraine. Industries like chemicals and manufacturing are especially strained, with the default rate for European companies sitting at around 3.5%, and sectors like car manufacturing and heavy industries under even more pressure from increased costs and supply chain issues.
This matters because when companies can’t pay their debts, they may have to cut jobs, stop projects, or even shut down. This slows the economy and impacts jobs and spending. For instance, if a major employer in a small town goes bankrupt, it’s devastating for the community—people lose jobs, local businesses lose customers, and life gets much harder for everyone.
Commercial Real Estate
Let’s shift to commercial real estate—like office buildings, shopping centers, and other business properties. The pandemic brought big changes to how we work, with many companies realizing they didn’t need as much office space because more people were working from home. As a result, demand for office space has dropped, and in cities like New York and San Francisco, office vacancy rates are now between 20% and 30%—almost double what they were before the pandemic. It’s not just office spaces; shopping centers are struggling, too. More people are shopping online, so many malls are having trouble keeping stores open, with some being repurposed or even abandoned.
Since 2020, the value of retail properties has dropped by about 15%. The main concern is that a lot of the loans for these properties are held by smaller regional banks. In the U.S., these smaller banks hold around 70% of all commercial real estate loans. If property values keep falling and landlords can’t pay back their loans, these banks could face big losses, making it harder for them to lend to small businesses and people, which would slow down local economies. For example, if property values drop by 10%, it could lead to a 15% decrease in how much these banks can lend, leaving less money available for businesses wanting to grow or people looking to buy homes.
Commercial real estate prices in the U.S. have fallen by 12% over the past year, with the office sector experiencing a big 23% decline. Nearly $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans will be due between 2024 and 2025, with a funding gap of $300 billion. The number of overdue office property loans has risen above 8%, up 3% from last year, signaling more stress in the market. This drop in property values is especially tough for smaller regional banks, which don’t have the resources of large national banks.
If these regional banks face significant losses, they may not survive without government help or merging with other banks. This could affect the communities they serve—not just by reducing available loans but also by impacting jobs and local investments. In 2008, falling property values caused many banks to fail and led to a credit crisis—a situation regulators are keen to prevent from happening again.
Nonbank Financial Intermediaries (NBFIs)
You may not have heard much about Nonbank Financial Intermediaries, or NBFIs, but they play a huge role in today’s financial system. NBFIs include institutions like hedge funds, private equity firms, and insurance companies. Unlike traditional banks, these institutions aren’t as heavily regulated, which gives them more flexibility—but also adds more risk. Since the 2008 financial crisis, NBFIs have grown significantly and now manage over $240 trillion in assets globally. The reason for this growth is that after the 2008 crisis, regular banks faced stricter rules and couldn’t take on as much risk. NBFIs stepped in to fill that gap.
While NBFIs can help spread financial risk and provide funding, they also introduce new risks. The challenge with NBFIs is that they operate largely in the shadows, often referred to as the “shadow banking” system. When they face trouble, it can catch everyone off guard, and these problems can spread quickly. Due to a lack of oversight, risks can build up without anyone noticing until it’s too late. If NBFIs continue to grow unchecked, the next financial crisis could easily start from this hidden part of the financial system, leaving regulators with little time to respond.
The Carry Trade Unwind
Now, let’s talk about something called the “carry trade.” Imagine borrowing money from a country where interest rates are really low—like Japan—and then using that money to invest in a country where interest rates are higher—like the United States. You make money on the difference between the low borrowing cost and the higher return. This is called a carry trade, and it can be very profitable—until something changes. In August 2024, we saw a “carry trade unwind.”
The Bank of Japan surprised markets by tightening its monetary policy, which made borrowing in yen more expensive. Investors who had borrowed in yen to invest in riskier assets suddenly had to reverse their trades. The result? The Japanese stock market (Nikkei) dropped by 12% in one day, and similar drops happened in other global markets. Within days, around $150 billion worth of carry trade positions were reversed, causing the yen to rise sharply against other currencies.
Hedge funds were hit especially hard. They had borrowed in yen and invested heavily in U.S. stocks, so when the yen got stronger, they had to sell their U.S. investments, causing prices to fall. The VIX, often called the “fear index” of the stock market, jumped from 16 to over 65—the biggest one-day increase since 1987. This carry trade unwind highlighted just how connected global financial markets are. A single policy change in one country, like Japan, can instantly affect financial markets around the world.
This situation is particularly concerning because many investors use leverage, meaning they borrow money to invest. Leverage can amplify both profits and losses, so even small changes can lead to big price movements, causing a cycle of forced selling and more instability. NBFIs played a significant role here as well. These institutions had borrowed yen to invest in assets like U.S. tech stocks and emerging market bonds. When they suddenly needed cash, they sold off their investments quickly, impacting markets everywhere.
Their rapid sell-off affected various types of investments, showing how fragile and interconnected the global financial system really is. One event can trigger a chain reaction that affects markets worldwide.
High Asset Price Valuations
Let’s talk about asset price valuations. Recently, global stock markets have climbed significantly, driven by hopes of a smooth economic recovery. But even with solid economic growth and strong earnings, stock prices still seem high in many regions. This has made high asset prices a significant risk to financial stability.
Since early 2024, Canada, China, and the United States have seen some of the biggest stock market gains. However, this upward trend was briefly interrupted in August when concerns about a possible economic slowdown led to a spike in market anxiety. The “Magnificent 7”—companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet), Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta—continue to dominate the U.S. market, now accounting for about 30% of the S&P 500’s value.
While these tech giants have shown strong earnings, the market’s heavy reliance on them adds considerable risk. If any of these companies were to face significant issues, the entire market could become unstable because of their large influence. Currently, the “Magnificent 7” are trading at high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios—Nvidia and Tesla, for example, have P/E ratios around 60, reflecting high expectations for future growth.
The S&P 500 is also trading at a P/E ratio above its historical average, currently sitting at around 26.28. This suggests that the market is priced with high hopes for earnings growth in the coming years. For valuation levels to return to normal by 2026, earnings for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq would need to grow by about 25% and 30%, respectively—growth rates that are much higher than current economic forecasts. If these optimistic expectations aren’t met, the market could face a sharp correction.
Meanwhile, stocks in emerging markets are trading at a much lower P/E ratio of around 14.9, which is within the typical range for these markets. This lower valuation suggests that while investors are willing to pay a premium for major U.S. tech companies, they remain cautious about growth prospects in emerging markets.
A sharp drop in asset prices could create widespread issues in the financial system, as institutions with large investments would face significant losses. This could lead to even more selling, affecting both developed and emerging markets, as global financial markets are deeply interconnected. Such a downturn could shake investor confidence and hurt economic activity around the world.
Interconnectedness of the Financial System
Finally, let’s talk about how interconnected the financial system really is. All the risks we discussed today—like government debt, corporate debt, commercial real estate, nonbank financial intermediaries (NBFIs), and the carry trade—don’t exist in isolation. In today’s global economy, everything is connected. Picture the financial system as a spider’s web: if you pull one part, the whole thing moves.
A powerful example of this interconnectedness is the 2008 global financial crisis. It started in the United States, where banks had heavily invested in mortgage-backed securities. When people started defaulting on these loans, the value of mortgage-backed securities crashed. Major U.S. banks suffered significant losses, and the crisis quickly spread to financial institutions around the world. European banks also held these securities or had close financial ties to U.S. banks, so the crisis wasn’t just contained in the U.S. The result was a severe credit crunch, leading to a slowdown in the global economy.
Similarly, if commercial real estate values in the U.S. keep falling, smaller banks that are heavily invested in commercial real estate could face serious losses. If these banks struggle, they might stop lending to small businesses and individuals, hurting local communities. When banks reduce lending, economic growth slows down, leading to higher unemployment and less consumer spending. This chain reaction shows how problems in one part of the financial system can spread to others.
The carry trade unwind we talked about earlier is another example of this connection. When investors suddenly pulled out of yen-funded investments, it wasn’t just Japan that was affected. The sell-off spread across global markets—stocks, bonds, and even safe assets were impacted. Because global markets are so interconnected, a single policy change by the Bank of Japan led to increased market instability worldwide.
Nonbank Financial Intermediaries, or NBFIs, add another layer of complexity. Hedge funds and private equity firms are closely tied to the broader financial system. When NBFIs need to sell assets quickly—like during the “dash for cash” in March 2020—they can create massive disruptions in financial markets. This “dash for cash” was sparked by a rush of investors selling assets during the COVID-19 pandemic to hold cash. Investors sold everything—from stocks to even “safe” assets like government bonds—just to have cash on hand. This panic led to sharp price drops across markets, forcing central banks to step in to stabilize things. This event showed how quickly fear can spread through the financial system, especially when NBFIs rapidly sell off assets.
These sell-offs push prices down, hurting other investors and creating panic, which leads to further falling prices and more sell-offs. The key point from recent analysis is that while short-term financial risks seem manageable, medium-term risks are higher because of weaknesses building up in the financial system. Low borrowing costs in recent years have helped keep immediate risks down, but they’ve also encouraged excessive risk-taking and borrowing, which can lead to bigger problems down the road.
While market stability might look calm now, underlying economic uncertainties mean that sudden shocks could cause significant instability in the financial system. This is why regulators and investors need to stay vigilant as these risks accumulate over time. The main takeaway is that the global financial system is deeply interconnected. Problems in one area can quickly spill over into others. This is why regulators work so hard to maintain stability—not just to prevent a single crisis but to stop a chain reaction that could lead to a major economic downturn.
Two interesting topics discussed beautifully!