Deepak Shenoy on how to think about the budget
We sat down with Deepak Shenoy, CEO of Capitalmind, to not ask about “what to expect from the budget” but to understand how to read and make sense of the budget. Instead of predictions and market guesses, the focus was on building a clearer framework for thinking about budgets and government policy.
He explains why the Union Budget is often overhyped and why it doesn’t have the same importance today as it did in the past. He breaks down what a budget really is at its core—how the government plans its spending, where the money comes from, and how gaps are financed. He also shares why headlines and budget speeches can be misleading and why the real insights lie deeper in the budget documents.
The discussion goes into what actually matters for investors and citizens alike. Deepak talks about how to spot meaningful policy changes, understand long-term spending direction, and separate symbolic announcements from decisions that can truly impact the economy over time. He also touches on areas where India needs stronger policy thinking, such as infrastructure, logistics, agriculture, and capital markets.
A large part of the conversation focuses on common mistakes people make on budget day. Deepak explains why reacting to market moves during the budget can be risky, especially when liquidity is low and price signals are unreliable. He shares practical advice on staying calm, avoiding knee-jerk trades, and thinking beyond a single day or headline.
We had a lovely time talking to him. We hope you enjoy the conversation too!
Really appreciate the focus on avoiding knee-jerk trades during budget day. The point about low liquidity making price signals unreliable is somethin most people miss when they're rushing to react. Last year I made that exact mistake and ended up closing positions that would've been fine if I just waited a day or two.