Happy New Year, everyone! đ
Usually, we dive a bit deeper into the biggest stories in the financial marketsâmore than your average news channel might. But today is different because itâs the very first day of 2025. We thought weâd mix things up a little.
Instead of running through the top headlines, weâthe writers behind The Daily Briefâwanted to share some of the most important lessons weâve learned while writing for you.
So, here we are: Krishna, Anurag, Pranav, and Kashish. And letâs not forget Bhuvan and Sagar, the ones who made all of this possible. A huge shoutout to Shubham, Bhavya, Meher, and everyone working behind the scenes. And of course, Manjesh, our incredible cameramanâthank you for everything.
You can listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and videos on YouTube. You can also watch The Daily Brief in Hindi.
In todayâs edition of The Daily Brief:
Kashishâs Lesson: The Complexity of Knowledge
Krishnaâs Lesson: The Power of Curiosity
Anuragâs Lesson: Indiaâs Unique Growth Story
Pranavâs Lesson: The Transformative Potential of AI
Kashishâs Lesson: The Complexity of Knowledge
This year, my boss made me smarterâbut also a lot more miserable.
He did this by tearing apart my worldview of what âknowledgeâ meant. According to him, my perspective was as broken as the CBSE website on board results day: a complete lost cause.
That said, we did agree on one thing. We both were baffled at how people could really be okay with being so âincuriousâ in life:
How are you okay not knowing why bad weather in Brazil is making your morning coffee more expensive?
How are you okay with not knowing the perfect air conditioner temperature, according to studies by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment and World Health Organization?
How are you okay not knowing that your late-night Netflix binge might be costing your countryâs GDP 1-3% annually?
How can anyone be so boring? So unimaginative? Bhuvan (my boss) and I could never wrap our heads around it.
But that is where the similarity ended.
I thought that knowing the answer to everything that intrigued me would make me smarter - which it did, ever so slightly. And because curiosity led me down so many rabbit holes, I assumed more knowledge meant more controlâor at least more certainty - which isnât how things work.
This is especially true in economics and financeâthe very field where weâre supposed to be expert writers. If anything, the more I learned, the more questions I had. The smarter I got, the messier the world seemed.
You see, you might think that having a cursory knowledge of an economic concept will give you a sense of certainty of what to expect in the future, but markets and the economy have their own way of humbling you. And most of the time, the very thing you thought you understood well enough, gets tossed out of the window and you get a reality check you needed.
Hereâs an example I witnessed firsthand.
In economics, thereâs a standard expectation:
When interest rates go up, borrowing becomes expensive for businesses and consumers.
This leads to a slowdown in credit growth (fewer loans being taken out), cooling off demand and, in turn, controlling inflation.
But real life doesnât always stick to the script.
From May 2022 to February 2023, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went on a rate hike spree, raising the repo rate from 4% to 6.5% in just nine monthsâone of the steepest hikes in recent history. By textbook logic, this shouldâve slowed down the growth of loans.
But guess what actually happened? Credit growth accelerated.
Yes, loans grew from 10% to 17%, even as borrowing costs skyrocketed. The very thing that was supposed to slow downâpicked up speed.
The market did what it wanted, despite what the textbooks would have predicted.
Does this mean everything we learn is wrong? Not exactly. But it does mean we overestimate how much our limited knowledge can predict the future.
The illusion of understandingâwhere we think weâve grasped a concept well enough to make bold claims about whatâs comingâis far more dangerous than being oblivious.
This is especially true for social sciences like economics than natural sciences like physics or maths. Making prescriptive statementsâstatements that dictate how things should beâmight work in nature, governed by the laws of physics. But economics? Thatâs a wild, wild world with no rules.
In the world of economics, only the self-deluded or the willfully ignorant would feel comfortable making such definitive statements. Thatâs not me⌠anymore. Because hereâs the thing: there are layers and layers of nuance behind understanding whatâs really happening in the world.
This brings me back to my boss, who made me smarter and miserable.
When he taught me this lesson, he cleverly seeded the idea that Iâll never âtrulyâ know whatâs going onâbecause itâs simply not humanly possible to know everything about the subject youâre researching or writing about.
Take Americaâs trade policy after Trumpâs tariff comments. Sure, I might try to connect the dots, but thereâs always that one geopolitical angle or one historical context Iâm missing. To get close to the truth, Iâd have to read more, dig deeper, and find those hidden angles. Thatâs what makes me smarter.
But, but, butâŚ
This very same thing is also what drives me absolutely insane. Because Iâll never have the satisfaction of knowing something to its end.
It makes me miserable that Iâll never know:
Was my coffee expensive only because of bad weather in Brazil, or did Vietnamese plantations play a role too?
Is setting my AC to 27°C really helping the planet, or just saving me a few bucks?
Will my late-night Netflix binge with my partner be a net positive for my mental healthâor is it quietly shaving off GDP?
Now Iâm smarter. But also far more miserable.
Thanks, Bhuvan.
Krishnaâs Lesson: The Power of Curiosity
Itâs been around six months since we kicked off The Daily Brief at Zerodhaâa daily podcast where we simplify the biggest market and business stories of the day. And in those six months, Iâve gone from someone who didnât know a single thing about markets to someone who can now confidently bullshit about quick commerce and a few other things I have written about.
Six months ago, if youâd asked me what a concall was, Iâd have stared blankly. Management commentary? Trends? Earnings transcripts? These were alien concepts. I didnât even know where to begin. And yet, every day, we dive into the news, contextualize it, and figure out what actually matters.
Itâs forced me to learn, to go down rabbit holes, and made me realize how much I enjoy knowing and learning about all the weird things happening around the world all the time.
Take the steel sector, for example. I had zero context about why itâs such a big deal or why everyone keeps talking about China when it comes to steel. Fast forward a few months, and now I can explain how China produces over half the worldâs steel and why their policies affect global prices. Itâs wild how much of the worldâs economy can be traced back to what China does or doesnât do. They're the top players, from solar cells to EV batteries to rare earths. Reading and researching this has made me realize just how interconnected everything isâand just how much of it revolves around China.
Another topic thatâs caught my attention is Quick commerceâI was specifically asked not to write on this but how can I not? I didnât think much of it when it startedâwho needs groceries delivered in 10 minutes? How can that possibly make money? But then Zepto launched, and people began posting screenshots of orders arriving in exactly 10 minutes. It blew my mind, but I didnât dig deeper back then. Fast forward two years and quick commerce hasnât just worked; itâs completely changed behavior. Itâs rewired how we consume. These platforms have turned into virtual malls, and Iâve finally started scratching beneath the surfaceâmore so because this is my job. Now, we even have two big-listed players betting their future on this industry: Swiggy and Zomato.
What fascinates me most about quick commerce is how itâs gone from something no one believed would work to something we now take for granted. Itâs not just about speed; itâs about how theyâve made us expect everything at lightning-fast delivery times. I mean, itâs hard to imagine a time when we were okay waiting three days for something to arrive. And the fact that so many traditional businesses are jumping in nowâplayers youâd never expectâis proof of just how big this shift is.
And while Iâve learned enough to speak confidently about these topics, itâs not just about throwing out facts or trends. Itâs about connecting the dots. For instance, understanding why China dominates critical minerals isnât just about knowing the numbers. Itâs about seeing how that control trickles down into everythingâfrom EV supply chains to global politics. Similarly, with quick commerce, itâs not just about the convenience of delivery but how itâs rewired consumer expectations and disrupted traditional retail in ways weâre only beginning to understand.
Looking back, these six months have been an intense education. The more I write and research, the more I realize how much there is to learn. Markets arenât just about numbers; theyâre about stories. People keep looking at quarter-on-quarter growth but what really matters is creating real impact over a very long horizon.
If thereâs one takeaway from this year for me itâs this: being curious enough to go down rabbit holes and patient enough to connect the dots over time đ
Anuragâs Lesson: Indiaâs Unique Growth Story
Looking back at 2024, something that has really fascinated me through the year is Indiaâs economic and consumption story. I see this story as a mix of contradictions, resilience, and new possibilities that constantly reshape how we all look at and define growth.
India, as a market, is complex yet inspiring. It teaches us lessons that go beyond the usual economic ideas. And thatâs what I find truly amazing and worth studying about our country.
Despite being the worldâs 5th largest economy, India doesnât fit perfectly into any established global financial or economic framework.
We have multiple paradoxes: thereâs aspiration amidst poverty, technological advancement alongside ancient traditions, and modern consumerism amidst deep-rooted cultural values. These contrasts practically shape the fabric of our economy in a way no other country can match.
Thinking about India as an economy, Iâve come to realize that itâs not concentrated in a few major corporates or major cities. Itâs actually spread across millions and millions of small consumers and suppliers. This decentralization makes understanding India, both, challenging as well as fascinating.
Think of it this way: individual incomes in India might be on the lower end compared to global standards. But when taken together, the sheer size of our population creates a massive market for just about anything and everything. This unique dynamic makes India a market thatâs tough to crack but, at the same time, open to almost anyone and everyone willing to understand its intricacies.
One of the biggest chunks of the population that contributes to the Indian economy is the middle class. In a manner of speaking, the middle class of India is the central engine of consumption in our country.
To give you some numbers, less than 5% of Indian households earn more than âš30 lakh annually. Thatâs fewer than 7.5 crore people in a population of 150 crore!
Despite this, the majority of economic activity does not rely solely on this top 5%. The real action actually lies with the massive middle class, which, no matter what cannot be ignored in a country like ours.
Indiaâs middle class is a lot more about aspiration than it is about affluence or wealth. And their consumption patterns show this perfectly, too. Opposite to popular belief, Indiaâs middle class, at large, arenât reckless spenders as such. Instead, theyâre more strategic as consumers, and they focus on investing in quality and value.
Someone once said this, and it stuck with me: âIndia isnât a price-sensitive market; itâs a value-sensitive one.â And I think that one statement captures the essence of consumer behavior in India.
But talking about consumer behavior, perhaps the most interesting segment of India thatâs worth looking at is our rural population.
While media narratives may force us to think otherwise, let me tell you that about half of Indiaâs income comes from rural areas. Rural consumers may not be ârichâ as such, but that doesnât mean they arenât informed, connected, or aspirational.
Thanks to the massive penetration of the internet and social media across our country today, people even in the remotest parts of India have access to the same information that people in top-tier cities do. This connectivity has fundamentally shifted rural Indiaâs role in the economy.
Also, digital technologies like smartphones and UPI payments have transformed even remote villages today. They have made these areas active participants in Indiaâs consumption story, which a few years ago was practically unimaginable.
So, while cities like Mumbai and Delhi usually take the media limelight, India's real growth stories are actually emerging from relatively smaller towns and cities. These areas, which are usually referred to as Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, are now starting to shape the future of consumption and innovation in our country.
Remember how I said, âIndia doesnât fit perfectly into any established global financial or economic frameworkâ? A big reason for this is the diversity and complexity of our market, which global companies usually struggle to interpret.
A typical mistake they make is trying to push a one-size-fits-all strategy. Because of Western biases, they tend to miss the nuances that make the Indian market unique. And as for Indian consumers, they demand value over anything else; whether they live in metros or in villages.
For example, a refrigerator designed for the European region may have fancy features and even a low price. But if it doesnât meet the needs of a typical Indian household, where power cuts are frequent, it is bound to fail as a product. This is why brands that understand these nuances usually do better than multinational giants in our country.
So, if I were to summarise, Indiaâs economy is full of contrasts.
Itâs modern yet traditional. Itâs growing fast, but itâs still very uneven.
If any business wants to succeed here, it needs to think very differently. It can never be about copying global strategies in India. Itâs almost always about creating something that fits our unique needs perfectly. And for those who manage to get it right, the rewards are crazy, to say the least.
Also, while this story of contrasts has been true for many years now, 2024 has taught me that India isnât a market thatâs waiting to grow. We, as a market, are already there. The only difference is that weâre there on our own terms, and these terms often donât align with global definitions of growth and success.
India is a very, very different country. Itâs a place where small businesses hold big power, where dreams drive consumption choices, and where digital tools and technologies create a level playing field, no matter where you live or how much money you earn.
For anyone interested in learning the nuances of economics, finance, and consumer behavior, studying India as a year-long case study is, in my opinion, worth every minute spent.
Pranavâs Lesson: The Transformative Potential of AI
This year I learned that⌠Iâm terrified and thrilled about the future.
When AI chatbots first came out, I wasnât really too impressed. It seemed like some glorified writing assistant who confidently lied to you. I didnât see the appeal. This was just a machine that had learned to talk. It was a cute gimmick â maybe even an engineering marvel â but why would I want to talk to a computer? It didnât solve any problems for me. What did it know about the world? How could it possibly understand anything? I thought, once the novelty faded out, Iâd quickly get bored of it.
Iâm happy to report that I was wrong. Because AI has changed my life.
I still think AI is a mediocre writing assistant, by the way. If youâre only using AI to write some emails or automate menial office work, youâre missing out. Letâs think bigger.
AI gives you additional intelligence on command. Once you learn how to talk to it, it can think for you.
Iâm not talking about philosophizing like Socrates. Iâm talking about regular, boring stuff.
Want a workout, but youâre feeling a little tired and lazy, and your shoulders hurt and you only have thirty minutes to spare? Itâll give you a perfect workout plan. Bought ingredients for a biryani but youâve ruined the rice and now need to know what else you can quickly whip up for your guests? ChatGPT could give you a whole new recipe. Need to dress up for a party, but youâre feeling bloated and your confidence is low, and youâre not sure of how your clothes go together? AI can help you again.
Thatâs what makes it special: AI has infinite use cases. It can find you perfect answers for almost any situation. Give me a scenario and Iâll give you a new use case.
I donât think weâve really had a product like this, ever. The internet comes close â as do computers or smartphones â but not really. The apps you use let you do one or two things well. WhatsApp lets you talk to people. Instagram lets you view and share images. Google lets you find things others may have published. You might use these for many reasons â but itâs basically the same use case.
AI isnât like that. Itâs infinitely more flexible.
When you get comfortable with AI â once you learn how to prompt it to do what you want â you start coming up with use cases on the fly. Sit with it for half an hour, and you can find a dozen use cases that nobody on the planet has thought of.
In fact, hereâs a prediction Iâll make with some confidence: while most people use their smartphones in roughly the same way, I think every single person will eventually use AI in a way thatâs wholly unique to them. Itâll be the ultimate personalized super-app.
After a few months of using AI a lot, hereâs how Iâve come to think of it, though I might be completely wrong.
To oversimplify things a lot, psychologists broadly see the brain as having two distinct âpartsâ. Thereâs the base stuff â the monkey brain â which is what we use most of the time. Itâs the part of the brain that wants things, fears things, likes or hates things, or cares about how others see you. Itâs what we share with dogs and pigs and most other higher animals.
Then, thereâs the special human stuff â a thin rational layer sitting on top of the monkey brain. Itâs what engages in Kahnemanâs âSystem 2â thinking. Itâs a part of your brain that you engage occasionally â when youâre analyzing or thinking deeply over something. Itâs immensely useful â itâs what makes us human. But you can only use it sparingly because itâs slow and eats up a lot of energy.
AI is an incredibly powerful update to this rational layer. Itâs as though you can call on the power of a million extra brains â trained on every word available on the internet â to deliberate for you. Itâs infinite intelligence on command.
Donât like the answer it gives you? You can ask for five more. Or twenty. Or two hundred. We donât really have an intuition for how an inexhaustible source of intelligence works. It works at a scale thatâs entirely superior to our own heads. Weâve really never seen anything like it.
How do you prepare for an economy thatâs augmented with AI? Itâs really hard to tell. When we learned to augment our muscle power with engines, we ended up creating everything from vehicles to factories, to skyscrapers. Computers gave us everything from video games to 3D printing. When the smartphone first came out, nobody imagined it would give you services like BlinkIt or Uber.
The thing is: we have a knack for mixing technology in all sorts of different combinations, to make up entirely new, unimaginable things. So, what will we do with something that already has innumerable use cases? What will we do with the ability to be a thousand times as smart as we are? I really donât know. All I know is that weâre staring at a fundamental transformation.
What should you do personally, though? I recommend you play with it. Just⌠bask in its magic. Figure out where your own brain falls short, and see what life is like when you support it with extra intelligence. Donât make this a workplace tool. See what it does for your life.
From personal experience, itâs a game changer.
Thank you for reading. Do share this with your friends and make them as smart as you are đ Join the discussion on todayâs edition here.
I loved Kashish's writing and i can so connect with Krishna!
This post is such a good way to connect with the writers of my fav newsletter. Thankyou Team đ
Excellent effort guys đ. I wish you great success for the year 2025 and beyond. Keep up good work, providing great insights on India in general.